Weber: By the end of the year, Kosovo and Serbia may be closer to a final agreement
German political analyst and Balkans expert, Bodo Weber, said in an interview with KosovaPress that by the end of the year, Kosovo and Serbia may be closer to a final agreement.
Weber added that if we compare Washington's meeting, which is expected to be held on June 27, with the previous negotiations, this upcoming negotiation rounds is even more awkward.
In an interview with KosovaPress, Weber says there is no clear agenda for the June 27 meeting in Washington. He refers to Grenell's statements that it will be a meeting of an economic nature, while Thaçi warns of a possible final agreement, while Kosovo government officials insist they have a negotiating platform with clear principles and red lines, but at the same time insist that they don't know what will be discussed at the White House.
Full interview:
1.On June 27, the Kosovo and Serbian delegations meet at the White House to restart a new round of negotiations backed by the United States. What is your view on the June 27 meeting?
Weber: If we compare this meeting with the previous, dangerously misguided and totally intransparent negotiations led by then chief EU negotiator Federica Mogherini, this upcoming negotiation rounds is even more awkward. In Mrs. Mogherini's negotiating process we at least knew the official setting - negotiations on a final, comprehensive agreement. And after a year we publicly knew about the secret agenda of the three negotiators - land swap. On the June 27 meeting we basically know nothing, starting with contradictory statements by Grenell and President Thaci about the agenda - a short-range economic agreement or a comprehensive big deal. At the same time, Kosovo government officials insist they have a negotiating platform with clear principles and red lines, but at the same time insist that they don't know what will be discussed at the White house, but nevertheless have agreed to take part in such negotiations.
2.Since the June 27 meeting will be held at the White House, do you expect an agreement between the parties given that President Trump's administration wants this to happening.
Weber: Well, as the only conclusion left to make about this whole negotiation setting is that the meeting is first and foremost about Mr. Grenell's and the Trump administration's interests, that sounds that the aim is to get to sign ANY agreement.
3.On the other hand, the European Union has intensified its efforts to bring the parties back to the negotiating table. EU Commissioner for Dialogue Miroslav Lajcak arrived in Kosovo on Tuesday in a bid to revive EU-mediated negotiations. Will these efforts succeed in bringing dialogue back to Brussels?
Weber: There are positive developments going on on the EU side when compared to the last desastrous three years of negotiations. EUSR Lajcak seems to have understood that he represents the majority position among EU members, which is anti-land swap, instead of privatizating his negotiator role as Mogherini had done. Thus he seems to work on a serious reset of the negotiations based on what should have been done from the EU side three years ago - defining the negotiation framework, that is the basic principles and aims of the dialogue - which are all known since Serbia and Kosovo accepted the political dialogue framework back in 2012-13, i.e. that Serbia accepts the reality of independent Kosovo within existing border including some form of mutual recognition, stops promoting blocking the country's bid for membership in EU, UN and other intl. organization, in return for EU membership perspective, plus integration of Kosovo Serbs into Kosovo state and society by Kosovan side guaranteeing the institutional-legal preconditions for them to lead a normal life as equal citizens.
4.The Kosovo authorities did not show any enthusiasm in relation to Mr. Lajcak, however, is enthusiastic about the June 27 meeting. What do you think, will the talks move from Brussels to Washington, if so, will the EU be excluded from this process?
Weber: The US has always played an important role in the dialogue, but it cannot lead it - as it has nothing to offer Serbia and Kosovo close to what the EU has to offer - from economic support and cooperation to EU membership. I that sence the unilaterally prepared and conducted talks of Mr. Grenell can only be a smaller or bigger disturbance of the EU lead role. It is progress that Mr. Grenell in his recent interview for Kosovo media insisted he coordinated with Berlin and Paris and that there is some division of work between the US and the EU - even if none of this is true.
5.Looking at recent developments regarding the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, it seems that relations between the US and the EU are at their lowest point, perhaps for many decades. What is your opinion of what is happening here?
Weber: Mr. Grenell has identified some personal career boost in the Kosovo-Serbia negotiation issue, and found some partners for this ego-driven endeavor in Belgrade, and even more so in Prishtina. And he can pursue this private agenda, and as a side effect undermine and humiliate the EU, because he works for an administration that does not stand for the liberal-democratic values and liberal world order all previous US administrations, Democratic and Republican stood for, and that was the basis for the US supporting Kosovo's independence. That's what is happening here.
6.Indications have been given that both Kosovo and Serbia want to get rid of each other. If a peace agreement is reached in Washington, do you think the EU can be seen as a failed mediator?
Weber: I'm not sure that Kosovo and Serbia really want to get rid of each other. At least the chief negotiators from both countries have well profited from the non-solution, the endless delaying of the dialogue agreements. As I said, I don't see tha US administration has the capacity nor the understanding to strike any agreement that comes close to a comprehensive, final, peace agreement.
7.How do you see Ambassador Grenell's approach to dialogue, which in his statements focuses more on economic issues and trade relations. In fact, if only this platform is really discussed at the negotiating table in Washington, do you think that the political problems between the parties remain unresolved?
Weber: If Mr. Grenell speaks the truth in insisting this will be discussed in Washtington, this would be the best option, but I'll still remain sceptical any such deal would have real substance in terms of implementability. Because what we've learned in the dialogue is that economic issues cannot be sustainable solve without at least moving towards ending the status dispute.
8.As a good connoisseur of political developments in the Balkans, what will the end of this year look like in Kosovo-Serbia relations?
Weber: In the best-case scenario that Mr. Grenell's performance will only have minor disturbing impact, we could ideally see restart of EU-led negotiations based on a serious reset - that until the end of the year could maybe lead us closer to a final agreement.
Bodo Weber is a well-known German expert on the Balkans and a Senior Associate of the Democratization Policy that focuses on the Western Balkans, German and European Foreign Security Policy and Transatlantic Relations.