Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing the highest level of political tensions since the end of the bloody war in this state, in 1995. The Dayton Peace Accords stabilized the country, but now after many years there are efforts that endanger the peace and existence of the Bosnian Federation. The crisis was triggered mainly by efforts of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik to turn state power into an ethnicity level.

At first, Western powers did not seem to take the threats seriously, but now a number of Western governments and diplomats have set in motion. Sead Turcalo, a distinguished professor at the University of Sarajevo, in an interview for KosovaPress, says that the crisis can be overcome if the pro-Bosnian political options are coordinated together with the international community, to isolate Milorad Dodik. Moreover, he says, a stronger commitment from the US and key EU countries is needed to hinder Russia's malignant influence, and limit Serbia's divisive activities in the region. Interviewed by: Fadil MIFTARI KosovaPress: Professor Turcalo, the worst political crisis since the end of the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina was produced by Milorad Dodik's threats to return state power to the entity level. Is this an attempt to destroy the Dayton Peace Accords? Turcalo: After 2006, Milorad Dodik has intensively tried, with constant obstacles to overthrow the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the progress made under the Dayton Constitution. In recent months, we are experiencing the culmination of Dodik's efforts towards the weakening of the state, the endangerment of sovereignty and consequently of territorial integrity. KosovaPress: If Dodik's announced move had an epilogue, it would mean the illegal removal of the competencies of BiH state institutions, which were formed during more than twenty years of implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement and as a result, it sounds like a 90s scenario. What might be the reaction of the Bosnian part? Turcalo: The current reaction of political parties that have a pro-Bosniak agenda is limited, emphasizing that these are unconstitutional movements, which tend to endanger peace. Moreover, there is no clear joint activity that would isolate Milorad Dodik internally, and a clear agenda of stronger coordination and lobbying to international actors, that through international isolation and targeted sanctions make Dodik's political project fail, which would also end his political career. What is undoubtedly clear is that there is a commitment, but also an obligation to institutionally protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state from such attacks. KosovaPress: International experts are warning that Bosnia is in danger. From your point of view, is it likely that Bosnia will get involved in an armed conflict? Turcalo: It is already worrying that there is more and more talk about war, although at the moment it is unlikely to happen. However, it should be borne in mind that in the conditions when the authorities and political representatives of the Serbian Republic entities use vocabulary that escalates the current political crisis every day, and in Serbia are circulating ideas that strongly resemble an updated version of Greater Serbia - I think in the "Serbian World" - then even the smallest, an insignificant incident can lead to a situation that could push not only the country, but also the region in conflict. KosovaPress: As tensions in Bosnia are escalating, so far, we have not seen Belgrade authorities send content messages. And the perception has been created that Russia and Serbia are behind Dodik's warnings. What reaction can be expected from the West, the US, NATO, and the European Union? Turcalo: Milorad Dodik and the ruling regime in Serbian Republic entity do not have the courage or the tools and means to undertake activities without the support of Serbia and the Russian Federation that lead to the violation of the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and consequently the entire legal and political order established by the Dayton Peace Accords. Although Serbia declares its support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the content of its policy, it continues to be a destabilizing and divisive factor in the region. Institutional support for convicted war criminals is still present, part of which is still evident these days in the event related to Ratko Mladic's mural in Belgrade. The idea of the Serbian world is openly discussed, which in its content acts as an updated version of the idea of a Greater Serbia, but whose implementation in the first phase is somewhat more sophisticated, and includes the use of support of one of the key malignant actors in region - Russian Federation. Therefore, in essence, at this moment, the partnership between the EU and the US is crucial in combating divisive actions and preventing malignant influences. It is to be expected, at least in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, that some EU countries, in cooperation with the United States, will begin to cut financial flows to the initiators of the crisis and their political marginalization. Hypothetically, NATO may also have so-called ‘Over the horizon forces’, but I'm not sure there will be any commitment in that direction. KosovaPress: We have seen President Biden bring back to the Balkans some of the most successful American diplomats of the 1990s. Do you think that these ambassadors will have to face similar problems as in the 1990s? Turcalo: The crisis in the region has been a permanent category since the end of the aggressive wars waged by the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Serbia in the region. Within a crisis, only the intensity of the conflict changes. At the moment, we in Bosnia and Herzegovina are in the worst situation since the end of the aggression against the state. From the content of the actions and documents adopted by the political stance in the Serbian Republic entity it is very clear that they are ready for the complete destruction and push of the state towards violence. That is why it seems that the task of the Biden administration's new diplomatic team in the region may be to prevent a conflict, rather than work for progress in the region. KosovaPress: After these tensions, the West has turned its attention to Bosnia and Herzegovina. The US envoy to the Western Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, was in Sarajevo this week. Diplomat Escobar has held a meeting with Mr. Dodik and the latter seems to have withdrawn from his move. Do you see this as hypocrisy, or will Dodik really back down from his threats? Turcalo: Judging by the moves following Escobar's visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina, only Milorad Dodik's rhetoric has lost some of its intensity, but the approach of the Russian embassy, which supports his efforts to overthrow the state sovereignty and build pre-institutions is more intense and aggressive. Although an attempt is currently being made to schedule a session of the Serbian Republic entity at the National Assembly, to approve laws establishing pre-institutions, the first step has already been taken with the adoption of the RS Drug Agency law. KosovaPress: A large number of non-governmental organizations urged the Turkish authorities to intervene to help Bosnia and Herzegovina. I do not know if this request is to draw the attention of the European Union, which somehow has not been very firm in its positions. How likely is it that Turkey will get involved in this crisis, given that Turkey already feels influential? Turcalo: I am not sure if Turkey will appear in a bigger role than the mediating role, which means gathering Bosnian and regional leaders in a kind of mediation. In terms of power and impact capacity, however, the US and EU are crucial actors that could lead to the de-escalation of the crisis. KosovaPress: But, z. Dodik was also invited to Turkey, where he was received by the highest state level, including President Erdogan. What are your impressions from this visit and the messages given by Ankara? Turcalo: Turkey can act as a mediator, but I do not see that it can have the capacity to influence and escalate the current situation. The messages are moving towards stabilization and here is essential the need for pressure to reverse the decisions so far of the Assembly and the Government of the entity and to disable the governing structure within the RS entity from re-establishing such actions. KosovaPress: We often see that the leaders of the three ethnic groups in Bosnia go to, for example, Milorad Dodik to Belgrade, Mr. Izetbegovic to Ankara, Dragan Covic to Zagreb, and it seems that from none of these centers are messages received for the preservation and strengthening of peace. For those of us who see developments from the outside, the concentration of these leaders in these three centers is a signal that they want to measure forces in other ways, that is, from a distance, off the table. I am interested to know your opinion? Turcalo: The role of the mentioned states has been different in the recent history of Bosnia and Herzegovina. They must be seen even today from this point of view. Neighboring countries continue to seek to disproportionately influence Bosnia and Herzegovina's domestic politics, and very often, as in recent months, this influence leads to attempts to further polarize, fragment, and ethnicize the state and society in Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the other hand, I think that Turkey's role at the moment cannot be seen outside the framework of a friendly state. What is noticeable is that relations between Turkey and Bosnia and Herzegovina are often full of emotions and personal relationships between political leaders, while in other segments, Turkish entrepreneurs still see stability and profit as a crucial factor in investment. Although Turkey has offered a range of benefits to Bosnia and Herzegovina in economic exchange, it is still clear that it is significantly more present in the largest markets in the region. KosovaPress: And my last question, how can the crisis be overcome? Turcalo: Crisis could be overcome if pro-Bosnian political options are coordinated with the international community, isolating Milorad Dodik and his ruling regime in the Serbian Republic entity, domestically and internationally, and the international community through targeted sanctions to bring about his weakens. Moreover, a stronger commitment from the US and key EU countries is needed to hinder Russia's malignant influence, and limit Serbia's divisive activities in the region. On the contrary, this is only the first part of the crisis, which may intensify in the coming months and negatively affect the entire region. /Sead Turcalo is a distinguished Professor of International Geopolitics and Security and Dean of the Faculty of Political Science at the University of Sarajevo/