Filipova: The West will not be able to watch the terrible developments in Ukraine without using a little force
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2 year ago
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The head of the institute "Global Analytics", Rumena Filipova considers that it is possible to imagine different scenarios of Russian aggression not only in Ukraine, but throughout Europe. In an interview for KosovaPress, Filipova says that Russian aggression could include attacks on NATO countries, such as the Baltic countries, but also the Balkans.
And if the war in Ukraine continues to escalate, the chief analyst of Global Analytics says that the West will not be able to remain a mere spectator in the face of the horrific developments in Ukraine, but will use force.
According to her, Europe, America and the West must find a way to strengthen the principles on which the international order has been built since 1945, and to ensure that Russian aggressive nationalism and militarism are contained.
Today, when it is the fourth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Filipova says this is the biggest threat to the European security order since World War II.
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" It's an incredibly dramatic and sad development. And unfortunately, what we are seeing is an attack on a sovereign European country, and as many politicians and analysts have said this is perhaps the greatest threat to the European security order since the Second World War… It's hard to predict currently how things will develop, but for sure, this is a grave threat to the European security order, but also to the European normative order, because it is based on a set of very important ideas about non-aggression, about good neighborliness, about the importance of human rights, and respecting the equality of all states in Europe and internationally. So, for sure this is a huge ideational challenge and security challenge as well. But how things will develop in the future is currently hard to predict that present, but for sure Europe, and America, and the West should find a way to reinforce the principles on which the international order was built since 1945, and to make sure that aggressive nationalism and militarism is contained", she says.
As diplomats, security experts and experts on international relations have warned, the ego of Russian President Vladimir Putin may be greater than the invasion of Ukraine.
This stance shares the chief executive of "Global Analytics" for KosovaPress, because according to her, a greater involvement of Russian aggression can not be ruled out.
" Actually, now I think that it is possible to imagine different scenarios developing a Russian aggression, perhaps not only in Ukraine, but also extending throughout Europe, including perhaps attacks on NATO countries, such as the Baltic countries, and also the Balkan. So, two indications of that, the first one being that the Russian foreign minister Lavrov said some time ago that NATO infrastructure should be rolled back from Bulgaria and Romania, which is a very worrying statement, perhaps indicative of future Russian intentions, and this at the same time can be combined with problems in the Western Balkans, including the unfinished process of European integration and also a variety of national level challenges. And here I have in mind, Bosnia, for example, and the actions of Republica Srpska, which are usually done in coordination with both Serbia and Russia, and usually on the part of Russia, instability in Bosnia is seen as an opening for increasing its influence in the Balkans", says Filipova.
She also comments on Serbia's stance that it "supports the sovereignty of countries, including Ukraine, while not imposing sanctions on Russia", saying that the declaration of war by Russia will put strains on Putin’s supporters around the world, and not only in Serbia.
" I think it will be getting harder and harder for all supporters of the Russian president and the Russian regime, to continue supporting him, because this is a very huge dilemma including a moral dilemma at present. It has been possible, up to now, for some politicians like Vucic to balance, to try to balance between Russia, and the West, and to declare his adherence and sympathy for Russian conservative values and international actions, but now the scale of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the declaration of war, I think would make it very, very hard for Putin's supporters internationally, not just in Serbia, to continue expressing support for his actions, because this is a very extreme developing that we're seeing in Ukraine, that will put strains on his supporters, generally, in societies throughout the world," says the CEO of Global Analytics.
While praising the British Prime Minister's statement that they will help Ukraine, she called the sanctions imposed on Russia a "positive step".
" So first of all, I would like to say that it was a very positive sign on the part of the British Prime Minister also to break from the past and say that the infamous statement about countries in Eastern Europe of which, we know very little or nothing, should not be upheld in the 21st century. So, this was a very positive development showing that there is potentially a significant degree of British commitment to the security of Eastern Europe, when it comes to the use of force, it remains to be seen how the situation will develop. But it seems to me, if there are a lot of civilian casualties in Ukraine, and if the war continues to escalate, this will present a huge moral dilemma to the International Community, meaning that the West will not be able to just stand by, and look at the horrific developments in Ukraine, without the commitment of a little force… And as I said, if we continue to see horrific scenes of how Ukrainian population is defending its country bravely, and on its own against Russia, this might affect the International public opinion, and it may lead to the commitment of the use of force on the part of NATO, or on the part of willing countries", she concludes.