Military analysts at the US-based Institute for Study of War have pushed out their latest assessment of Russia’s campaign. Here are the latest key takeaways:
Kyiv: The Ukraine capital remains Moscow’s main war operation. Russia is setting up conditions to encircle the capital with advances from the west and east of the city. Analysts believe the 64km-long convoy still north of the city is there to support an attack from the west.
Kharkiv: Shelling and aerial bombardments continue. Analysts believe Russia is launching an aerial attack first before it goes in with a renewed ground attack on either Wednesday or Thursday.
In the south, Russian forces are aiming to shore up their seizure of Kherson, which could clear the way for renewed drives onto Odesa and Mykolaiv – which would knock out Ukraine’s port access.
Kherson is a vital base for the military as it seeks to push further inland and west along the coast to the big port city of Odesa. Kherson is itself an important Black Sea port and an industrial centre.
Controlling Kherson means controlling a major water source too. Ukraine dammed the North Crimean canal after Russia seized the Crimean peninsula, so most of the fresh water supply into Crimea was cut off, causing water shortages in the annexed region.
They are also lining up troops to encircle Mariupol to the east – which would create a “land bridge” for Russian forces to travel freely between the Russian mainland and Crimea.
