The next global economic crisis will occur in 2026 and will be the worst in history, claims British author, economist and business consultant Fred Harrison based on his 18-year business cycle model.

His claims carry particular weight because the 80-year-old Harrison was one of the few analysts who predicted the recent financial and real estate crisis, which began in 2008, in time.

Harrison is so convinced of his bleak prognosis that he wrote a letter to Keir Starmer, the leader of the British Labor Party and the likely winner of the UK general election on July 4, that he would rather lose elections to avoid responsibility for the coming collapse.

"If Labor wins the election, which is quite certain, the Starmer government will be guilty of what we already know will happen, regardless of which party is in power. On the other hand, of course, they cannot lose the election on purpose,” Harrison said in an interview with the Swedish daily Aftonbladet.

The British economist claims that based on economic data from the early 19th century to the present day, including in the US, Great Britain, Australia and Japan, he came up with the theory of 18-year cycles that have been repeated for centuries around the world. the world.

Harrison believes it is wrong to use land and real estate as the main drivers of economic growth. His basic idea is that economists mistakenly assume that the state of the real estate market depends on conditions in the rest of the economy, because ownership is the key factor that shapes the business cycle, and not the other way around.

Global property prices, which Harrison argues are key to any crisis, will continue to rise until 2026 and then collapse sharply.

“During the 2008 crisis, national governments poured money into banks, which benefited from the real estate market - thus mitigating the effects of the collapse. However, the costs had to be borne by the citizens. At the end of this 18-year cycle, states will be so over-indebted that they will find it very difficult to borrow in the market to save their economies," explained Harrison.

The economic crisis that will hit the world in two years will be the worst in history, as the damage at the end of every post-World War II cycle is increasing, according to the economist who came to public attention in 2005 when he predicted correctly. "The next turning point in the real estate market will happen in late 2007 or early 2008. The only way to get prices back to affordable levels is a recession."

The current situation is aggravated by parliamentary and presidential elections, among others in Great Britain, the USA and France, so the parties in power ignore savings even more.

"Debts will grow as elections approach and more promises are made, but soon national governments will realize they can no longer borrow as much as they need. To fulfill their promises, they will then have to print a lot new money, which will increase inflation and have consequences for ordinary citizens," said Harrison.

"This is a very bleak prospect and no one knows exactly what will happen. Governments are walking blindly towards certain death. Things can go wrong and the other way around, let's say if Putin decides to use nuclear weapons ."

Apart from Starmer, from whom he received only a polite and general thank you for contacting him, Harrison once tried to warn former British Prime Minister Tony Blair of the impending crisis.

Harrison is well versed in the Russian economy and market because after the collapse of the Soviet Union, he worked for years as an adviser to the Russian government and parliament on tax and market reforms. He tried to steer Russian economic policy towards investment in schools, science and health, but left Russia in 2002 when it became clear to him that Russian rulers and businessmen were not interested in investing in development, but in real estate. and football clubs in the west.

Fred Harrison also believes that the coming financial crisis will benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"European governments are already spending huge sums to modernize and organize large military forces in the event of a Russian attack on one of the NATO members. The chaos in which the West will soon find itself will be used by Putin to promote his interests, as the war in Ukraine will not end as he wishes. Basically, our future is not bright at all."