David Kanin, professor of European Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, says that the results of the parliamentary elections in Kosovo have shown that Prime Minister Albin Kurti's quarrels with the Americans have damaged his party - the Vetëvendosje Movement - to a certain extent.

In an interview with Radio Free Europe, Kanin says that if Kurti is re-elected prime minister, it is not clear whether relations with the US will improve.

"But it's very clear that the people around [US President Donald] Trump are unhappy with him, just like the people around [former President Joe] Biden were," Kanin says.

In recent years, the US has repeatedly warned the Kurti government about certain actions in northern Kosovo, which it has considered unilateral and uncoordinated.

Kanin says that whoever forms the new Kosovo Government will have the formation of the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities among the immediate challenges.

Radio Free Europe: Professor Kanin, Kurti's party, according to preliminary results, lost about 10 percent of its support. What factors do you think contributed to this decline?

David Kanin: It was a different election this time. The Serbs voted and a percentage went to them. Also, Kurti's quarrels with the Americans have not helped him. I think they have damaged him to some extent, but not that much, because this is not a catastrophic result for him. He continues to have the largest party.

Kosovo's challenger leader with less support

The Democratic Party of Kosovo and the Democratic League of Kosovo do not have the votes to form a coalition without Kurti. They need more support. They could secure that if they went into coalition with the Serbian List, but would they? Would these two parties be willing to work with the Serbs to form a government? That is the question. And if they are not willing, they will have a hard time collecting 61 mandates in the Kosovo Assembly.

According to current forecasts, Kurti can secure 54 mandates, and to form a majority he needs 7 more. He can secure this with the non-Serb minorities. I'm not saying that this will happen, but if Kurti is willing to form a coalition - because he has said no - he has a chance.

Radio Free Europe: Who do you expect to lead the next Government of Kosovo?

David Kanin: I don't know. I think part of it depends on whether Kurti really means what he says - when he says he won't go into a coalition. I don't know if he really believes that.

I think the Americans will push for a government that will be united - if nothing else - by the will to create the Association of Serb-majority municipalities. That's what we Americans would want. But I think it's too early to know who will be prime minister, because I don't know what conversations are taking place between the different parties, if any.

The Association, among the first challenges

Radio Free Europe: What will be the biggest challenges for the new Government, regardless of who forms it?

David Kanin: The first thing will be the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities. Whether the new government will be willing to form it, given American and European insistence, remains to be seen. But this is complicated by the fact that the Serbian government is also in trouble. Will [Serbian President Aleksandar] survive? Vuçiq? Will the current protests drive him out? So, it also depends on who will be in the Government of Serbia, or what the stance will be. Vuçiqtowards the new Government of Kosovo, or the people who will replace it...

So, there is a lot of uncertainty. Of course, the new Kosovo Government will also have to set its internal priorities in terms of the economy, education, health... then comes relations with the European Union, the issue of status - outside of Serbia, because there are five EU countries that do not yet recognize Kosovo.

We know that Kosovo governments, even before Kurti, have not been able to secure recognition from any of these five EU countries.

"The dialogue will also depend on the fate of Vuçiqit"

Radio Free Europe: Do you expect any progress in the dialogue with Serbia?

David Kanin: I think it depends on what happens in Serbia. For the first time, the leadership of VuçiqIt is questionable. It is possible that his regime is in trouble. I think what happens in Serbia is very important to answer this question. When it becomes clear, maybe we will know more.

If Kurti becomes prime minister again, he may find ways to delay any move towards the Association of Serb-majority municipalities, pointing to the instability in Serbia. If other people come, they may want to have improved relations with Serbia. But, again, until we know what the future of the Serbian government is, it will not be clear how things will go.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: As you mentioned earlier, Kosovo's ties with the United States have faced tensions in recent years. Do you think the new government will take steps to improve relations with Washington?

David Kanin: If the new government is not with Albin Kurti, if it is some kind of coalition without the Vetevendosje Movement, then yes. [White House envoy for special missions] Richard Grenell has made it clear that the Americans want Kurti out. A week before the election, Grenell has made the American position very clear.

"People around Trump, unhappy with Kurti"

Radio Free Europe: So, what if Kurti becomes prime minister again? What will happen to relations with the US?

David Kanin: It will be difficult. If he is elected prime minister, he will be able to say that he has a mandate just like the American president. He will try to cooperate with the Americans, he will say that he is cooperating and he will blame the Serbs for everything.

But it's very clear that the people around [US President Donald] Trump are unhappy with him, just like the people around [former US President Joe] Biden were. So if Kurti remains prime minister, it's not clear whether relations with the US will improve.

Radio Free Europe: But he insists that these relations have never been better...

Kosovo at a crossroads with its allies

David Kanin: That was a campaign statement. It's not true. Grenell immediately responded to that statement, saying that it's not true, that the relationship is terrible and that it's at a very low level.

Radio Free Europe: Looking ahead, what policies or decisions could define Kurti's new mandate as prime minister?

David Kanin: If he returns as prime minister, we will have to see if he continues to have a very tough approach towards Serbs in northern Kosovo. He has undermined their institutions, closed many of them, because, according to him, they have functioned against the interests of Kosovo.

If he returns, he will have a smaller majority, it will be a different Assembly, so it remains to be seen whether he will continue with that campaign against the Serbs, even though the Americans are very much against it.

Radio Free Europe: Kurti insists he has the right to close those institutions, citing the country's laws and Constitution...

David Kanin: Just because you have the right to do something doesn't mean you have to do it. He can choose whether or not to continue the pressure on the Kosovo Serbs. That's a choice he can make, and that's a choice I would pay attention to.

"Despite pressure, Kurti's party remains the most popular"

Radio Free Europe: And one last question - what message do you think the election results sent to Kosovo's international partners?

David Kanin: I think the message should be that a large part of the Kosovo electorate remains suspicious of cooperation with the Serbs, remains suspicious of Serbia. A large part continues to support Kurti's policies in northern Kosovo and in relation to the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities.

The international community must understand that, despite the pressure, its ability to influence the Kosovo electorate in these elections has been limited, because Kurti's party remains the most popular in the country. He has far more votes than his rivals for prime minister.