Israel threatens - the US loses control, the Iranians panic
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Israel threatens - the US loses control, the Iranians panic
5 months ago
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Iran's government is extremely nervous and is engaged in urgent diplomatic efforts with Middle Eastern countries to assess whether they can scale back Israel's response to an Iranian missile attack earlier this month, and if that fails, how. defend Tehran, writes CNN referring to sources familiar with the matter.

Iran's anxiety stems from uncertainty over whether the US will succeed in persuading Israel not to attack Iran's nuclear and oil facilities, and from the fact that its most important proxy militia in the region, Hezbollah, has been significantly weakened by Israeli military operations. recently, sources said.

The US is consulting with Israel on how it plans to respond to an Iranian attack on October 1, and US officials have made clear they do not want Israel to strike Iran's nuclear facilities or oil fields. US President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday for the first time in nearly two months, telling him that Israeli retaliation must be proportionate.

US allies in the Persian Gulf, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar, have also expressed concern to the US about a possible attack on Iran's oil facilities, which could have negative economic and environmental consequences. for the entire region, an Arab diplomat told CNN.

The Biden administration is deeply concerned that ongoing hostilities between Iran and Israel, which began earlier this year after Israel attacked a building Iran claims is its consular headquarters in Damascus, could escalate into a major regional war that may include the US.

Much of the fear is related to the fact that US influence over Israel appears to be waning in recent years. Like its operations in Gaza, Israel has increasingly ignored US calls for restraint in Lebanon, where Israel's intense air campaign and ground offensive have killed more than 1.400 people since late last month.

Israel also did not consult the US before launching a massive strike last month that destroyed thousands of pagers and radios used by Hezbollah operatives, nor before killing Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, ending a the subtle cease-fire proposal that the US and France had proposed less than 48 hours earlier.

Israel's security cabinet has yet to make a decision on how to proceed, an Israeli official told CNN on Friday. And while the gap between the US and Israeli positions is narrowing, it may not stay that way, the US official said.

"We can't really know whether they voted or not," said a senior administration official, speaking about Israeli cabinet discussions, expressing doubts about the level of transparency about what Israel shares with the US. The official suggested they could not "put too much faith in the calculations" of the Israeli government.

Until last week, Israel had given no assurances that it would not target Iran's nuclear facilities, CNN reported.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued a strong warning to Iran about Israel's response on Wednesday, saying "they will not understand what happened and how it happened."

Gulf countries generally want to stay out of the conflict, the Arab diplomat said. Although Iran has publicly warned that any party seen to be helping Israel will be treated as an aggressor, it is unlikely that Iran's neighbors will come to Tehran's clear defense in the event of an Israeli attack.

However, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have told the US and Iran that they will not allow Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran, an Arab diplomat and another source familiar with the situation told CNN. . Jordan will also protect its airspace from any unauthorized incursions, regardless of origin, a Jordanian official said.

Although Qatar regularly communicates with the Iranians and relays what they say to the US, the US official said "we don't know what Iran intends to do". Key voices inside Iran will have differing views on whether and how to respond to Israel, but that will depend on the scale and scope of the expected Israeli move, another US official said.

The official said that messages from Iran have remained consistent both publicly and privately since Tehran fired missiles at Israel earlier this month, and that there have been no significant changes in those messages.

Iran is particularly interested in getting help from Saudi Arabia in preventing an Israeli attack and using their influence in Washington to find a solution to the crisis, an Arab diplomat told CNN.

The world is watching Israel's every move closely as it ponders its response. But at least until Saturday evening, Israel will rest for the celebration of Yom Kippur - the holiest day in Judaism. While it is not impossible for Israel to take action, shops, restaurants and other services will be closed, public transport will not operate, and even the country's main airport - Ben Gurion in Tel Aviv - will be closed.

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