Three new polls show that Donald Trump is behind rival Kamala Harris in the crucial states for his path to victory, writes Newsweek. According to the latest set of Marist polls, conducted between Oct. 27 and 30, Harris leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

To win the election, Trump must flip the results in at least one of the three states currently held by Harris.

If Harris carries these three states, which Biden won in 2020, with a very likely electoral vote from Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, she would win exactly the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

Polls in all three states show a close race. According to poll tracker FiveThirtyEight, Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin by less than a percentage point, while Trump leads in Pennsylvania by 0.7 points — after Harris previously carried the state.

However, individual polls in the three states varied, with candidates mostly within three points. The last four polls from Pennsylvania show Trump leading among likely voters by 1 to 3 points.

But the latest Marist polls show a more positive picture for Harris, who leads by 3 points in Michigan and by 2 points in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Her lead in all three states is within the poll's margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.

The poll also shows Harris leading among independent voters in all three states. In Michigan, she leads independents by 6 points, up from 2 points in Marist's previous poll in September. In Wisconsin, it also leads among independents by 6 points, up from 4 points in September. In Pennsylvania, Harris has seen a significant increase in support among independents, now leading by 15 points, while Trump had a 4-point advantage among those voters in September.

Harris beats Biden in 2020 among independents in Pennsylvania by 6 points, while her lead among independents is the same as Biden's in 2020 in Michigan. In Wisconsin, her lead pales in comparison to the double-digit lead Biden had against Trump in 2020.

Overall, Harris' lead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania has grown since September, when an earlier Marist poll showed her leading by one point in Wisconsin, while the candidates were tied in Pennsylvania. But her lead in Michigan narrowed by 2 points compared to September, when she led by 5 points.

What are independent voters?

In the context of American elections, the term independent refers to voters who do not identify with either of the two major political parties - Democratic or Republican.

These voters are not registered as members of a party and usually do not have a strong ideological affiliation with a party. Their votes can significantly affect the outcome of an election because they are often undecided until the last minute and tend to vote based on current issues or a candidate's appeal rather than party affiliation.

In US elections, independent voters often form a key group in so-called 'swing states', where they can decide the winner.

"In Michigan, more voters have a better opinion of Harris than Trump," said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Trump's popularity is falling; his negative ratings far outweigh his positive."

In Michigan, 43 percent of citizens have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 53 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Harris has a favorable rating of 48 percent, while 47 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

With less than a week until the election, the race looks tighter than ever. Pollsters currently suggest that Harris leads in the national popular vote while Trump leads in the electoral vote, which could put him back in the Oval Office.

Pollster Nate Silver's forecast shows Harris with a 1.1-point lead and a 74 percent chance of winning the national vote. However, because of Trump's position in key states, the forecast shows Harris has a 46 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Trump has a 54 percent chance.

Meanwhile, according to FiveThirtyEight, Harris leads by 1.4 points nationally, but gives Trump a 52 percent chance of victory compared to Harris' 48 percent. According to both pollsters, Trump leads in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania, which could provide him with enough electoral votes to enter the White House.

However, if Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, she would earn enough electoral votes to win. Silver's forecast reports that Trump has a 24.4 percent chance of winning all seven key states on November 5.