New satellite images released by Maxar Technologies suggest Russia is engaged in what US officials describe as the most ambitious expansion of military production since the Soviet Union.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), solid-fuel rocket motor production capacity appears to be one of Russia's most pressing focuses in recent times.
According to the IISS, Russia is increasing capacity for the production of solid-fuel rocket engines at five sites related to solid-fuel production.
Satellite photos from Maxar Technologies in the IISS report show not only the developing technology, but also the possible restoration of "dormant" facilities from the USSR era and the construction of new infrastructure.
Identifying the purpose of an extension is complicated. According to the IISS report, there is the potential for multiple facilities to be involved in the development and production of engines for a single missile system, a scenario first documented by the CIA when the Soviet ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) was being developed. Because of this, it is difficult to know exactly which expansion of the missile program is involved.
The production of the main chemicals needed for the production of solid fuels is also one of Russia's problems.
According to Russian press reports cited by IISS, Russia currently relies on only one producer of ammonium perchlorate, a critical oxidizer used in most modern composite fuels. Federal State Enterprise Anozit in the Novosibirsk Region has announced plans to renew its ammonium perchlorate production line in 2022.
However, satellite images have not yet shown significant changes at the plant, so it remains unclear whether Russia is buying this key chemical from alternative suppliers.
Russia's imports of ballistic missiles from Iran and North Korea suggest that their production of SRBM (short-range ballistic missiles) is insufficient for the war in Ukraine.
Expanding its solid fuel production capacity could allow Russia to renew and upgrade its existing arsenal of key systems located in Ukraine.
In the long term, this expansion could also strengthen Russia's ability to develop systems that could pose a threat to NATO members.
According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine on the social network X, since the beginning of the war, Russia has lost almost 10 thousand tanks, 19.059 armored combat vehicles, more than 20 thousand artillery systems, almost 20 thousand unmanned aerial vehicles and - most most importantly - more than 1 thousand multiple missile systems.