China is facing economic trouble after Trump's return
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China is facing economic trouble after Trump's return
5 months ago
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China has unveiled new measures aimed at boosting its ailing economy as it prepares for a second term for Donald Trump, who won the election by promising high import taxes, including tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese-made goods.

Beijing plans to address tens of billions of dollars in debt to prevent it from hampering economic growth, but a Trump victory will further strain relations between the world's two largest economies given that during his first term Trump "struck" Chinese goods with 25 percent tariffs.

The real estate slump, rising national debt and unemployment, as well as weak consumption have slowed China's growth in recent years.

Analyst Bill Bishop says Trump should take his word on the new tariff plans.

"I think we have to believe that he means it when he talks about tariffs, that he sees that China violated its trade agreement, that he thinks that China and the crown cost him the election in 2020," Bishop said.

Pressure from Washington did not ease after Trump left the White House in 2021. The Biden administration kept the measures in place and in some cases expanded them. While Trump's first wave of tariffs was painful for China, the country is now in a much more vulnerable position.

China's economy is struggling to return to pre-pandemic growth levels, but instead of the rapid recovery expected, the country has become a regular source of disappointing economic news.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered China's economic growth estimate to 4.8 percent for 2024, while next year the annual growth rate is expected to drop to 4.5 percent.

China's latest plan involves using an extra 6 trillion yuan ($840 billion) between now and 2026 to bail out local governments that have accumulated unsustainable levels of debt, the BBC reports.

For decades, the Chinese government has fueled growth across the country by borrowing large sums of money, much of which has been spent on infrastructure projects. But the downturn in the real estate industry has left some cities unable to pay their bills.

In 2017, President Xi said his country plans to move from "rapid growth to a high-quality development stage," describing the transition to an economy driven by advanced manufacturing and green industries. But some economists believe China just can't get out of trouble.

"China risks stagnating, which Japan survived after the stock and real estate bubble burst in the 1990s," said Stephen Roach, former president of investment bank Morgan Stanley Asia.

To avoid this, he says China needs to rely on "untapped consumer demand" and move away from "export- and investment-led growth".

Roach says this would not only encourage more sustainable growth, but also reduce "trade tensions and China's vulnerability to external shocks".

China, which has long been the world's factory of cheap goods, is trying to replicate this success by exporting high technology. It is already a world leader in solar panels, electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China now produces at least 80% of solar panel production, and last year clean energy investment accounted for a third of the world total.

Exports of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar panels increased by 30% in 2023, surpassing $139 billion for the first time. This export growth helped soften the blow to China's economy from the ongoing real estate crisis.

But along with that increased export, there was an increase in resistance from Western countries, not just the US. Just last month, the European Union raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles by up to 45 percent.

"Currently, the problem is that the main beneficiaries of these commodities, including Europe and the US, are reluctant to receive them," said Katrina Ell, director of research at Moody's Analytics.

Now that Trump is set to return to the White House with a promise to cut Chinese imports, Beijing must ask whether its latest measures to boost the slowing economy will be enough.

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